In 2025, S&P 500 companies spent a record $942.5 billion on share buybacks—an 18.5% increase.
Meanwhile, R&D spending growth hit its slowest pace since 2009.
Every business school teaches that prudent capital allocation and risk avoidance define good management.
This “safe” approach is destroying American competitiveness.
After working with dozens of companies on high-stakes transformations this year, I can tell you what separated winners from losers.
It wasn’t budget. It wasn’t technology. It wasn’t even strategy.
It was decision-making discipline.
The Pattern Nobody Wanted to See:
→ Transformations fail at 70-90% rates
→ Executives fear “big bets”
→ Companies retreat to buybacks
→ Innovation capital dries up
→ Stagnation forces rushed transformations
→ Which fail at… 70-90%
The companies that broke this cycle didn’t spend more. They made different decisions.
Three Ways to Avoid Shortermism and Mediocrity:
1. Optimization-First Thinking Became Strategic Malpractice
We built finely-tuned machines optimized for perfect conditions. Then supply chains collapsed, talent markets shifted, and AI capabilities exploded. Those machines shattered under stress.
Winners redesigned for anti-fragility—systems that strengthen through disruption.
2. Leadership Teams Became the Biggest AI Bottleneck
95% of corporate AI projects failed to show P&L impact. Not because the technology didn’t work, but because executives made AI fluency optional.
When leadership lacks skin in the game, AI becomes a sandbox hobby instead of a competitive weapon.
3. Vague Aspirations Kill More Transformations Than Bad Technology
Organizations that actually transformed did something uncomfortable: they wrote down their trade-offs.
What Winning in 2026 Demands:
The ability to make and execute high-stakes decisions with clarity, velocity, and discipline. McKinsey’s data: Making 1-2 bold moves raises your odds of jumping from middle to top quintile from 8% to 17%. Three bold moves? 47%.
But bold moves without execution discipline are just expensive failures.
Four Questions for Your Leadership Team:
1. Did we take enough calculated risks, or mistake caution for wisdom?
2. Did we build for resilience, or optimize into fragility?
3. Did we make transformation accountable, or let it remain optional?
4. Did we name our trade-offs, or hide behind aspirations?
The bottom line: Hope is not a strategy. Incrementalism is not safety. The cost of inaction compounds daily.
If you’re a CEO, COO, or Chief Strategy Officer leading a high-stakes transformation in 2026, I want to send you a complimentary copy of Big Bet Leadership.
→ email info@rossmanpartners.com “Big Bet 2026” and I’ll send you the book.
Read my full 2025 year-in-review with this full analysis and top 10 article on high-stakes decision making at my Substack Newsletter: HERE
Leadership Strategy CEO AI BigBets BusinessTransformation